The question is resounding throughout Baltimore and some corners of the baseball industry: “How can the Orioles be sellers at the trade deadline when they’ve got their fans excited for the first time since early 2017?” The answer is simple: The Orioles do not only need to operate as sellers. They can act as buyers, too.
The deadline is three weeks away. It’s still a bit early for the Orioles to decide their course. Their playoff odds, according to Fangraphs, are only 1.5 percent, even after an eight-game winning streak that has pulled them within one game of .500 and two games of a wild-card spot.
If the Orioles sought to add players — veteran starting pitchers, in particular — it would not be solely for 2022. In theory, they could play on the two top pitchers on the trade market, Reds right-hander Luis Castillo and Athletics righty Frankie Montas, both of whom are under club control through next season. They also could pursue a controllable starter from a team looking to cut salary, someone like Padres left-hander Blake Snell.
“First of all, we’re going to see what the next few weeks bring,” Orioles general manager Mike Elias said Monday. “Everything can change so dramatically, given how rapidly we’ve come on and the fact that our division is so stacked. It’s a pretty narrow pathway for our playoff odds to increase.
“But in our view, the 2023 picture is increasingly bright, in our view. And if we can continue to get good health, some encouraging signs in the majors and minors that come into focus, I think we will find ourselves — I’m hoping — in one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.
“We’re going to be looking at different things. There will be moving parts. It’s potentially not going to be a black-and-white path with which way we will approach the deadline. I’m looking forward to seeing what new information the next few weeks bring, both from our team and what happens around the league.”
The odds of the Orioles landing Castillo or Montas are low; teams intent on making the playoffs this season will be more motivated to part with better prospects. Snell also might be difficult to pry away if the Padres want to protect their pitching depth. Injuries to several starters contributed to the team’s collapse last season.
Then again, the Padres are close to exceeding the luxury-tax threshold for a second straight year, and Snell is earning $13.1 million this season and $16.6 million in 2023. The Padres also need offense, and have shown past interest in Orioles right fielder Anthony Santander, sources said.
The Orioles’ surge has team officials all but dismissing the possibility of trading center fielder Cedric Mullins or left fielder Austin Hays, both of whom are under club control for three more years and could be part of the team’s next postseason push (Santander is under club control for two more seasons).
Trey Mancini (Gene J. Puskar / AP Photo)
Trey Mancini, a potential free agent who serves mostly as a DH, still appears likely to be traded, along with possibly one or two relievers from the Orioles’ surprising bullpen, which ranks fifth in the majors in ERA. Teams often prefer to trade relievers at peak value, knowing how volatile their performance can be.
But if the Orioles added in other areas, they could cushion the blow of their losses, including Mancini, their longest-tenured player. Mancini, 30, endeared himself to fans and the organization with his stirring comeback from Stage 3 colon cancer after missing the 2020 season. The Orioles, though, have other players they can rotate into the DH spot. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle would be one. Rookie catcher Adley Rutschman, when he needs a break, would be another.
The Orioles’ farm system would be an advantage if they chose to buy as well as sell. The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked their system 10th in the majors before the start of the season. Baseball America ranked the system fourth, behind only the Mariners, Rays and Pirates.
Another advantage for the Orioles would be payroll flexibility. The bulk of Chris Davis’ $23 million salary comes off the books at the end of the season. The team has only $4.225 million in guaranteed commitments for 2023, though a number of its players will receive raises in salary arbitration.
After losing 108 or more games in the past three full seasons, Elias said he recognizes the importance of finally showing progress to the team’s fans. The Orioles, who have produced three walk-off victories during their eight-game winning streak, drew crowds of 27,814 Friday (their fifth-highest of the season) and 32,286 on Saturday (their second-highest, after Opening Day).
The weekend marked the only chance this season for fans in Baltimore to see the Angels’ Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Attendance was boosted by giveaways — Orioles floppy hats to the first 20,000 fans, 21 and over, on Friday, and Birdland Hawaiian shirts to the first 25,000 fans, ages 15 and over, on Saturday. But for the first time in a long time, Camden Yards was alive.
“It was a very encouraging week in the organization,” Elias said. “For me, it’s not just the results of the games, which were great to see. But the style of play, the effort level of the players, the excitement of the games … it was a very good representation of the health of the organization and what we’re trying to do. And because it was happening on the major-league field, in the middle of summer, during a homestand, it was a very nice thing for our fan base to grab onto.
“We’re certainly very cognizant of all kinds of different factors as we make any type of decisions around baseball ops. None of it happens in a vacuum. We have very particular considerations to make in terms of the recent history of the Orioles, the nature of our city and fan base. We’re taking all of that into account.”
(Top photo: Joe Nicholson / USA Today Sports)